Africa Market Trends: The Resilience of Africa in the Face of the Hormuz Crisis

Global container volumes reached 47.2 million TEUs in Q1 2026, a 4.4% YoY increase that nonetheless conceals a deteriorating trend at the margin. March volumes rose 5.8% MoM but declined 2.4% YoY  an early statistical signal of the trade flow disruption attributable to the Strait of Hormuz conflict. Within this context of broad disruption, Sub-Saharan Africa registered the strongest regional performance of the period. Imports grew 17.7% YoY in Q1 2026, totaling more than 2.5 million TEUs. April followed the same trend with YTD export growth reaching 10% and import growth 15% YoY. The primary driver was the Far East–Africa corridor, which expanded by over 30% in Q1, reflecting both the region's underlying growth dynamic and the partial rerouting of flows away from disrupted Middle Eastern lanes. 

Between April and June 2026, major ocean carriers widely implemented surcharges due to strong demand and geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) generally ranged from $150 to $300 per container on Europe–Africa trades, rising up to $500–$1,000 on major global routes by June. War Risk Surcharges (WRS) were by far the highest, averaging around $2,000 to $3,000 per container due to security risks in the Gulf. Meanwhile, Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS), introduced to offset rising fuel costs, typically ranged between $100 and $150 per TEU. Overall, the combined impact of these surcharges added several hundred to several thousand dollars per container, significantly driving up freight rates during the period.

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has also further contributed to the reorganization of maritime flows produced similarly uneven outcomes across African port infrastructure. Ports combining sufficient handling capacity with favorable geographic positioning relative to alternative shipping lanes gained competitive advantage, Lomé, which expanded its cargo-handling capacity in late April, captured a portion of this diverted traffic. 

This dynamic of sea freight extended to air cargo: in March, while global air cargo demand contracted 4.8% YoY, African carriers recorded growth of 7.0% YoY, the highest of any region driven in part by bypass traffic rerouted away from Middle Eastern airspace. For example, Ethiopian Airlines has seen a sharp rise in bookings as Addis Ababa becomes an increasingly important stop for diverted cargo. By April, as the global market returned to growth at 4.0% YoY, African volumes continued to outperform at approximately 7–8% YoY and over 12% YTD. 

This volume growth was constrained by limited airfreight capacity among African carriers, which resulted in operational bottlenecks, shipment backlogs, and a sharp increase in freight rates. The impact was particularly severe in East Africa's floriculture sector, where capacity shortages and congestion on Africa–Europe and Africa–Middle East routes led to delivery delays of 24–48 hours and forced airlines such as Ethiopian Airlines to introduce surcharges, increasing transport costs by around 20% from early April. Combined, these disruptions caused estimated losses of approximately USD 4.8 million in Kenya within the first weeks of April alone, with revenue declines of up to 75% for operators dependent on Gulf routing.
 

Inland, the same disruption to sea and air import flows increased the relative importance of intra-African trade, placing renewed pressure on rail logistics networks whose structural limitations remain significant: road transport accounts for approximately 85–90% of Sub-Saharan freight. Rail networks remain fragmented by gauge incompatibility and incomplete cross-border connectivity, and key corridors such as Dakar–Bamako remain non-operational. Progress is nonetheless occurring at the project level, as illustrated by the MoU between Cameroon and AGL for the development of the Edéa–Kribi rail corridor, designed to connect inland production zones to the deep-water port of Kribi and establish a new intermodal logistics chain in Central Africa.

Yet these logistical bottlenecks stand in contrast with the broader trajectory of intra-African trade, which continues to gain momentum at the continental level. According to the Afreximbank “African Trade and Economic Outlook 2026” report, intra-African trade is expected to reach USD 230 billion in 2026, up from USD 210 billion in 2025, reflecting the growing impact of the AfCFTA and stronger regional integration efforts. However, this progress masks a “two-speed” integration process: while some countries are successfully developing regional value chains, others continue to lag behind due to infrastructure gaps, regulatory barriers, and weaker implementation of AfCFTA provisions.