Africa Market Trends

Global container market set new records in 2025, with volume reaching 15.4M TEUs in January and exceeding the 16M TEUs threshold six times throughout the year—a stark contrast to 2024 when this milestone was achieved only twice. In October, volumes rebounded to 16.3M TEUs (+2.8% month-on-month), bringing cumulative year-to-date global volumes to 4% above 2024 levels.

Against this dynamic backdrop, Africa emerged as the year's top-performing region, leading all geographical areas in import growth. Total containerised trade grew 9.4% in the first half, with momentum accelerating in the second half-year as Sub-Saharan Africa imports surged 16% year-to-date through October. This exceptional growth, predominantly import-driven, played a pivotal role in supporting global volumes despite challenges on major trade lanes.

Analysis by origin reveals contrasting dynamics. The Far East remained dominant throughout the year, accounting for 49% of imports with impressive 23.6% growth in the first half-year, accelerating to 25.5% year-to-date through October, driven by sustained demand for consumer goods, electronics, and industrial inputs. Europe maintained its position as the second-largest origin with more modest 2.5% cumulative growth. The most surprising development came from North America, which posted a spectacular 25.1% increase in the first half-year before intensifying further in the second half-year with a remarkable 40.3% year-on-year surge in October, primarily driven by project cargo, automotive parts, and industrial equipment.

Conversely, African exports faced headwinds, declining 1.6% due primarily to commodity price volatility. Only intra-Africa trade demonstrated resilience with 9% growth in first half-year. This persistent divergence between surging imports and stagnant exports widened the trade imbalance, underscoring Africa's evolving role as a net consumption market increasingly integrated into global supply chains. Despite sustained growth in import volumes, pricing benchmarks for Sub-Saharan Africa exhibited relative stability throughout 2025. However, temporary upward volatility was recorded between March and July.

While ocean freight maintained consistent strength throughout 2025, the air cargo sector in Africa told a more nuanced story, according to IATA. The first quarter proved particularly challenging, with air cargo demand from African airlines declining 8.9% year-on-year—the sharpest contraction among all global regions. The Africa–Asia trade lane shrank by over 30% year-on-year, following the extraordinary 41% surge in 2024 when severe ocean freight disruptions in the Middle East pushed shippers to switch to air freight, creating an exceptionally high comparison base.

The second quarter showed limited improvement, with cargo traffic growing only 1.2% despite a 5.7% expansion in capacity, below the global average. The Africa–Asia corridor continued to contract by 9.6% due to the persistent base effect, while the Africa–Middle East corridor provided the only bright spot with 15.6% year-on-year growth.

During the second half Africa emerged as the fastest-growing region by delivering a robust recovery in the third quarter, as cargo demand expanded by 12.5% year-on-year, while capacity increased by 6.6%. The Africa–Asia and Africa–Middle East routes were the primary contributors to this outcome. The Africa–Asia corridor posted a 10.4% increase, reversing the previous quarter's decline, while the Africa–Middle East route registered a 14.3% expansion. Finally, the fourth quarter maintained this positive momentum, with October year-to-date demand reaching 16.6%, suggesting that full-year results should confirm Africa's resilient performance throughout 2025, mainly driven by rising demand for temperature-controlled medicines and healthcare products.

For 2026, IATA forecasts moderate demand growth of 2% for African airlines, slightly below the global average of 2.6%, with capacity adjusted cautiously to stabilize load factors. 

Despite these remarkable performances, several major events disrupted supply chains in 2025. In Mali, a campaign of attacks on fuel convoys forced some international carriers to temporarily cease operations to Bamako before the situation improved through reinforced military escorts. In Sudan, conflict devastated infrastructure, paralyzing trade and movement. In Tanzania, the abrupt closure of Dar es Salaam port following post-electoral violence in late October extended transit times by 7-14 days on East African corridors before improvement in early November.

Globally, shipping companies are cautiously returning to the Red Sea at the end of 2025 after two years of disruptions caused by Houthi attacks in the area. This trend is expected to continue during the first half of 2026, and if all conditions remain stable, experts anticipate a gradual return to normal by the end of 2026.

Finally, the volatility of US tariffs has reshaped global trade flows. In response, China has massively redirected its exports to African markets, enabling Sino-African trade to reach record levels with a Chinese surplus of $60 billion in the first eight months of 2025. However, relations between Africa and the United States have not been severed, as after casting doubt on the extension of AGOA, a key Senate committee approved on December 10 an extension of the free trade agreement until December 31, 2028. The bill still needs to be approved by Congress and signed by President Donald Trump.

Despite geopolitical disruptions and infrastructure challenges, the continent demonstrated remarkable resilience and strengthened its integration into global supply chains. The outlook for 2026 depends on Africa's ability to maintain this momentum amid global capacity adjustments and evolving international trade dynamics.